Shared Blood, Shifting Order: Defense, Energy, and Identity in a New Turkic Axis

This article explains how Türkiye and Azerbaijan transformed a long-standing fraternal bond into a region-shaping alliance following the Second Karabakh War in the context of permissive systemic dynamics. Using Type III Neoclassical Realism (NCR), the article argues that the shift from symbolic fraternity to institutionalized convergence was enabled by a permissive structural moment, marked by United States (U.S.) retrenchment, Russian strategic overreach, and the erosion of liberal-order norms, and activated by leadership-level agency. The study combines document analysis, budgetary data, and official statements to trace four arenas of cooperation: (1) defense cooperation in areas including drone technology and joint drills; (2) energy and transit corridors, most notably Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and the Middle Corridor; (3) a cultural-normative strategy that leverages Turkic identity for soft-power reach; and (4) the repurposing of the Organization of Turkic States from a cultural forum into an order-building platform. Findings show that these strands form a mutually reinforcing ecosystem: hard-power credibility attracts economic partners, connectivity projects consolidate identity narratives, and the revamped Organization of Turkic States (OTS) elevates bilateral gains to the multilateral level. The article also challenges the view of middle powers as primarily norm-preserving or reactive, demonstrating instead that they can act as entrepreneurial order-builders when systemic slack and domestic capacity align. It concludes that the Türkiye–Azerbaijan axis represents an emerging model of “bottom-up regionalism,” illustrating how middle powers in a post-hegemonic world can design new rules, corridors, and identities to suit their strategic priorities.